lördag 30 augusti 2014

Advice - can't live without, can't live with

Please note I'm writing this on a phone in the Austrian alps.

ADVICE

I always emphasize you never should take anybody's advice on stocks. I also say you should question famous or popular quotes etc.

I mean, how can you ever trust advice, in particular regarding Stocks?:

1. How can you tell they know what they are talking about?
2. If they actually DO know, it could be based on insider info and illegal
3. Will they be around to tell you when to close the deal (whether at a profit or a loss)?
4. If you don't know enough to make the decision yourself you can't judge the quality of the advice

On the other hand, if you never listen to advice in any situation you'll do less, experience less, learn less.

My way (not necessarily advice) is to listen to advice, pay attention to the facts, reasoning and logic behind the advice. I try to see which parts I actually can verify and understand fully and then I draw my own conclusions.

Some role models, mentors or "idols" have their strengths in fact finding and fact checking, others are strong in logic and drawing unusual conclusions, others can be contrarian indicators (e.g., if they are almost always wrong). Some just have a way of reasoning that triggers new thoughts in you, no matter if the reasoning, logic or facts are stringent or  correct.

Find your own guiding lights, assess their particular strengths and weaknesses. Use what you can use and ignore the rest.

PS: this post was triggered by a comment about the "stopped clocks", perma bears, among my favourite financial thinkers. Basically, the reader wondered why I listened to such con men (as if I wasn't one of them :).

10 kommentarer:

  1. The number one thing you should judge this so called analysts on is their track record. These perma bears e.g. Schiff, Rogers, Casey - basically all the Gold pumper crowd have abysmal track records. Mike I'm not suggesting for a second that you are a con man but the types I have referred to most certainly are. They need to be exposed for the lies and bs they consistently promote - the controlled opposition" alternative media scam.
    Romeo_is_real

    SvaraRadera
  2. PS they always try and use boiler room tactics to try and "upsell" you to their nonsense - for a modest fee of course!
    Romeo_is_real

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. I appreciate that you nuance the picture. I don't want anybody to suddenly blindly start following these guys' advice. I do , however, think you are a bit harsh. Still, though, good of you to make sure the other side gets through. Also, my main focus will be the life lessons some of them have to teach, rather than market recommendations.

      Radera
  3. Oh and the Keynesians like the clowns running the Fed and their court economists like Paul Krugman are not frauds who continue to pedal failed policies and lies and bs? Please! Thanks to them the world is awash in fiat dollars all chasing a limited number of goods creating an environment where pricing is distorted from reality. I would trust a Schiff, Rogers or Casey long before I would a Yellen, Bernanke or Krugman. At least they earn their money honestly. No one is forced to buy their ideas or products. Yellens policies are shoved up my ass whether I want it or not. No one can can opt out

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. I couldn't agree more when it comes to those. Yellen, Bernanke, Krugman... They are truly pure evil.

      Radera
  4. Just because I am critical of one camp doesn't mean I approve of the opposite camp.
    Just be extremely wary of the alternative "controlled opposition" scamsters is all - the proof is in their appalling track records.
    Romeo_is_real
    Romeo_is_real

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. I get that, and I only agree with what I agree with. There is often some value almost everywhere.

      Radera
  5. Actually if one had followed Schiffs advice from 2007-2010, you would have not only preserved your assets but also made modest gains..all the while most were losing money. Jim Rogers views on farming, are spot one. I work in the world of commodities (forest products industry) the fiat money here in the West has flowed to " soft" assets and the military industrial complex., while bypassing those industries that actually produce tangible goods so necessary for modern living. The result has been under capitalization, graying hair and low profits. The future bodes well for us who have stayed the course through very tough times. I am very confident that those of us producing these goods will be naming our price and riding high in the not too distant future. Jim Rogers says the same

    SvaraRadera
  6. "Actually if one had followed Schiffs advice from 2007-2010, you would have not only preserved your assets but also made modest gains..all the while most were losing money" Ah yes the old "selective time frame" technique - the mark of a true Charlatan. What if you followed his advice from 2010 until now? - the markets haven't crashed they have soared.
    Romeo_is_real

    SvaraRadera
    Svar
    1. Btw I don't want to come across as unduly acerbic in my posts. It's just the stuff these guys get away with (lies and deceit) is just downright disgraceful.
      Ever notice how all the Gold Pumper scammers seem to turn up as guest writers or interviewees on each other websites and radio shows? Remember birds of a feather flock together!
      Respectfully
      Romeo_is_real

      Radera