tisdag 21 oktober 2014

5 reasons why it's time to sell the bounce NOW

Five reasons to sell the bounce NOW:

First, It's still a bear market., and I recommend you sell the bounces not buy the dips
Second, the S&P 500 index (Es at 1910 as I'm writing this) has already bounced to the key level 1905 (slightly above actually, but see the next point)
Third, "false breaks" are common and I think this is one of them (falsely positive, false break upward). The downward move tends to be abrupt if (when) the upward break proves false. You have to panic before everybody else does. Beware of air pockets.
Fourth, a two-month trend line would have the bounce peak out around here, maybe 1% higher but I would never chase so small amounts if it means going against the main strategy
Fifth, A bounce of this kind in a downward trend usually lasts 3-4 days. I wouldn't give it any more time than that and that time is already up.

Perhaps it's time to sell that next tenth already (see comment section to this post).

3 kommentarer:

  1. Recently made a SPY put option order 5% out of the money with a strike of 183, and premium of 1.02 expiring at Nov. 22nd--blended that order down 3% out of the money with a strike of 187, premium at 1.62. We'll see what happens to this first round of orders expiring in about a month.

    1. Cool. Good luck. Just remember not to kill the messenger.

      I'm a RETIRED hedge fund manager, even if I actually still have access to the office and still am the CEO - but not for long.

  2. Just a quick note to let you know that I really enjoy your blog. I bought Peter Schiff's book based on your recommendation - looking forward to reading it.