måndag 10 november 2014

Have you taken these 6 necessary precautions for the next 25 (billion) years

Heads - regression for you. Tails - progression for the rich

Have you noticed how the world seems to accelerate and decelerate at the same time?

You have access to human kind's collected knowledge in your pocket (but you use it for Candy Crush Saga) and it's difficult to find a job even with an impressive and hard-earned degree; or keeping the job you've had for several years for that matter.

Ordinary people are turning into zombies, hooked on sugar, multimedia and loans, while the super rich are getting super richer-er. Politicians are promising change but their policies only accelerate the process.

What is going on?

Technological progress and New World Order go hand in hand to destroy your future

On the one hand technological progress is speeding up, governed by Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns (of which Moore's Law is a small subset). On the other hand, the average individual worker is not getting anywhere at all, while the cost of higher education and healthcare is increasing much faster than wages. Increased leverage is the only "solution".

These developments are connected in a sinister New World Order kind of way, that I will address below. Unfortunately, you can't stop it, so put that issue in the virtual drawer where you keep and forget issues that you can't do anything about; the SOP-drawer (Somebody Else's Problem).

The more pressing issue is what you can and must do to position yourself the coming 25 years.

You Must Make Yourself Change Resistant

Companies as well as jobs are disappearing faster and faster.

In the ten years between 1998 and 2008, six companies dropped off Financial Times's top ten global list. In the following five years, seven out of ten fell off FT's list. This partly reflects globalization and increasing competition, which actually is a good thing and net positive for the number of jobs and level of prosperity available. However, it's also an effect of digitalization and automation, which means a company requires less people and material to grow, and reaches clients globally at the push of a button. Old and slow companies with many employees disappear and new nimble companies like Google and Apple take over - with much less use for employees of flesh and blood.

When the steam engine was invented, it needed handlers and coal shovelers etc. It created more jobs than it threatened. The steam engine simply meant humanity could do so much more. Also, the change was quite slow, not least due to the time it took to manufacture the steam engines, educate operators, set up supply for coal and water and so on.

However, when Amazon sells e-books, Apple sells apps or songs and Google automates business after business (translation, oncology, maps, advertising), the change is almost instant on a global scale. In addition, a software can be copied and distributed without effort or delay, and the need for "handlers and coal shovelers" is much less pronounced.

You should still learn to speak automata, i.e., you should learn to "program" a computer in a wider sense of the word. Code is becoming the fabric of everything. "Programming" means you can create valuables from nothing. Not knowing programming or "handling" our new computer overlords, you risk becoming unemployed with no means of creating value. Robots will clean, cook, take care of ill and old, invest. They will be doctors, lawyers, traders, construction workers.

You must create value for other people (or be self-sufficient), with the help of computers to make a living the coming 25 years.

An obsolete university degree and face time at the office will not do in the future. My generation was the last one that could get away with that. Actually, not even people born in the 1960s or 70s are safe.

Learn to invent and build your own "steam engines" or bolt-on technologies (apps). If you learn the basics of instructing and using the new software tools, you can make use of whatever human creativity you possess to create unique stuff that can be used for barter no matter what happens. If not, you are left alone on the outside of the Brave New World.

Merge with technology, use it instead of being used

When Kasparov was considered unbeatable in chess, both for computers and other humans, even a mediocre chess player with a computer could beat him - even if Kasparov also had the help of the same computer program. The trick was to be good enough to realize when the computer had the better idea, as well as trust the computer to never make easy mistakes, thus freeing up the brain's creative abilities.

That is how you must position yourself the coming 25 years. The current school system is not going to be of much help there - it's mostly a waste of time. Just learn to read and write and some basic math; then get out of school as soon as possible.

Spending four years locked up at a university will get you nothing but debt and lost time. Instead you should find out what is valuable, and find the best way to attain that skill with the help of technology. It might be actual coding, even designing computer chips and it might be project management for creating payment and ad solutions for the Internet of Things. Your choice is individual but must still have a few basic characteristics. It should be AI and automation resistant and you must be somewhat interested and able and willing to learn the required skill set.

Become part machine by both controlling and interfacing with technological tools to stay ahead of both unenhanced people and more and more advanced AI tools.

In a way you already are a cyborg - more or lessed fused together with your phone and the internet. Without it you would be just as handicapped as if you lacked a limb or was seriously intoxicated and couldn't think straight.

Continue along that path but be systematic and productive about it. Instead of checking or updating Facebook or playing Candy Crush, learn to make an app at Khan or Codecademy. Use search engines or your own life to find out what apps are missing, or see what features you can improve on the most popular apps. Then get to it, learn by doing, by trial end error. You have 4 years' head start vs. the university boys.

Most important of all, you need to make yourself change resistant. You have to understand the changes and how they will affect you, you must be prepared for change, embrace it, make sure you continuously develop your skills, enhanced by computers, in areas (presently) unreachable for the forces of automation. Design, leadership and technology are promising areas to focus on. 

Unintended consequences of killing volatility

We currently live in the Great Moderation. Politicians and central bankers (as if they weren't politicians. Sic.) have done their best to kill volatility during the last 30 years.

First they stopped producing inflation for a while (good), then they managed business cycles by running large budget deficits during recessions and smaller deficits during expansions. They said they would balance the budget over the cycle, but always found excuses not to when things looked good (bad choice, since debt kept expanding and the economy became more and more sensitive to interest rates).

Then they lowered interest rates to zero and started printing money, to manage not only the business cycle but the stock market volatility as well. This was made possible by weak growth and low volatility, which lured all parts of society to take on more debt. The latter made low interest rates a necessity to avoid a Minsky moment and economic cleansing through market crashes and economic recession.

In addition they started saving banks and car manufacturers that should have gone bankrupt, thus causing widespread moral hazard (when you know you will be saved you can afford to take foolish risks with other people's money). With risks and rates around zero and the central bank and government as role models, the rest of society also accumulated debt and used it to speculate on financial assets (including housing which has made a slight recovery attempt lately).

Employees accept lower wages since they can use loans for consumption. Companies profit from low interest rates and the market's search for yield, by borrowing cheaply to buy back shares to enhance their key ratios, instead of investing and innovating. The latter is deemed too risky, due to low economic growth and stretched consumers living on debt. Governments run deficits to help the poor, as well as to kickstart" the economy. Central banks buy the debt issued by governments, to keep rates low to avoid squeezing consumers' already dismal disposal income. Consumers turn to speculation (loan funded) to enhance their income in a zero rate world. And old or retired return to the job market at any wage rate available, while younger people are laid off and stop applying for jobs altogether.

The monetary madness temporarily plasters over structural cracks in society. Zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) enable a zombie-like existence for overindebted companies, governments and people. However, interest rates can never normalize since that would tip the first domino in a very fragile economy. Consumers would have less to spend after interest costs, house prices would fall, corporate profits would be squeezed by lower sales, higher interest costs and higher wage demands, and would lay of even more people. The general economy would grow slower and deficits would increase (before higher interest costs).

Once leverage has reached a certain point, the current point, rates can't be raised without the whole house of cards crashing down.

The longer ZIRP is prolonged the worse it gets, as savers and companies are forced to speculate in a zero sum game, instead of creating value through productive investments. The central banks are forced to print more and more money and governments need to run larger and larger deficits, in what is tantamount to putting band aid on an Ebola victim. In the end any little straw will break the camel's back: a natural disaster, a failed ponzi scheme, a couple of profit warnings and a small correction on the stock or house market that topple's the weakest hand which in turn topple's the next one and so on.

Worst of all, as ZIRP drains investments and fuels speculation, the economy grows weaker through lack of investment and through misdirected and ultimately lost malinvestment. Exactly in a time when the development of nanotech, strong general artificial intelligence, biotech and robotics calls for unhindered creative destruction, the powers that be do all they can to siphon off riches for themselves, while making matters worse for the average man. ZIRP reduces investments and subsidies misdirects them while disguising that the world has changed and the need to adapt is more acute than ever.

Weak and obsolete companies and irrational and irresponsible banks are allowed to continue, thus increasing the costs and risks of moral hazard. Meanwhile Netflix and YouTube turn us into mindless drones and distract us from what's going on. Instead of benefiting from technology, you are conditioned to only utilize it for entertainment and advertising, keping your mind off your debts and the shrinking but ever richer class of the super-elite - the politicians, the CEOs and owners of subsidized companies deemed too large to fail.

The wheel, printing press, steam engine, combustion engine, transistor, nanotech, biotech, robotics AI, quantum computing etc promise a better world for all. Due to ZIRP, however, technological progress isn't used productively to make life more fulfilling for all. Rather technology is used as an opium to hide the truth from you; the truth that politicians are stealing your wealth through economic repression (zero interest on savings, forcing speculation, leading to asset price increases for the rich. When bubbles finally burst, your tax money is used to save the system, central banks print even more money making everything more expensive while redefining inflation measures, and make it even worse the next time round)

Computer Enhanced Human Creativity Is Change Resistant

This process kills off old jobs without creating new ones. Politicians know this but they want to pretend everything is under control to be re-elected. What they might not understand is that the development is progressing faster and faster, according to Kurzweil's LOAR. That's why you need act as an entrepreneur, learning to create real value in sought after areas, rather than hoping for an employment. Even money might become unreliable due to the mad printing ambitions in the US, Japan and Europe, and then you need something to barter with - and there is nothing more change resistant than computer enhanced human creativity.

Invest in yourself, not in the market

Right now, there are no good alternatives for an investor. Everything is expensive and set to produce no real return for decades. Stocks and bonds, even junk bonds, promise zero or negative real returns. My advice to anybody with money to invest (after investing in yourself and your own business) is to bide your time. If you want to be better off 25 years from now, there is no need whatsoever to rush in like a fool when markets and valuations are at all time highs.

The Great Moderation has made people take on more risk and more leverage than ever. The same process (through deficits, loans and low savings) has made profits and earnings per share look much better than they actually are (check sales instead or historical average normalized profit margins). The underlying risk, lower profitability and warranted valuations manifest themselves sooner or later, and have already caused two major downturns (around -50% each) just the last decade (2000 and 2007). It's about time again now. Perhaps not in 2014 or 2015, it's impossible to tell. However valuations are already 100-150% above sustainable levels.

Whatever new highs are made the following years will surely be erased in the coming downturn of most likely around -50%. Wait for that moment to invest. Use the interim to search for companies you would like to own but that are too expensive right now. And, no, a good company is not always a good buy. People tried those approaches in the 1960's and 1990's and lived (hopefully) to regret it.

Personally I am short the stock market (not advisable) and long gold and gold miners, as well as long USD vs SEK. I also have a sizeable investment in a private software company. I couldn't recommend any of my portfolio to anybody else. Either you have drawn the conclusions yourself to make exactly those investments or you haven't. You can't just take somebody else's advise for that type of contrarianism and risk level.

In short, my advise is to wait. Hopefully you won't have to wait more than two years and then you can start accumulate companies you believe have a sustainable future and at valuations that promise good risk adjusted levels of return (at least 10% per year). Remember though that you can't  hope for a pension other than what you provide yourself. No state has a system that can cope with the current indebtedness and pension schemes - in particular not after the coming financial crisis.

Think about how much has already changed for you in 10 years

Make a 1 year plan, 5 year plan, 10 year plan... Plans are great. Just remember you will never follow them. The most important is to be change resistant and ready for whatever might happen for the rest of your life. Once you relax too much you are either inviting a low glide into oblivion or risk becoming obsolete and without value.

What did you do 1 year ago? OK, easy enough. What about 5 years ago? Or ten. It's easy to remember if you just lived with your parents back then. But if you are 35 years old, e.g., you may be surprised just by consciously thinking about how different you and your life are compared to just ten years ago.

Then imagine what might happen the coming ten years. Some things you can control, others not at all. Will you have the same girlfriend, the same dog, the same job, the same apartment/house, the same phone, the same computer, the same TV technology, the same friends...? Did you keep any of those things the previous ten years? No? Why would you expect to keep them the coming ten years?

In 1 year, focus on particular skills you want to attain. In 5 years, focus on learning to learn and to stay healthy, stimulated and alert, and to start saving for old age. All the time, prepare for change, for black swans, for not being knocked out by any first sucker punch. Strengthen that glass jaw and become Rocky Balboa: learn to roll with the punches and accept them for life. You may not actually experience difficulty and failure, but if you do, you should be prepared to brush it off and try again, instead of becoming depressed.

Live 25 years to live forever

In about 25 years it will probably be quite clear that humans can live forever, if they want. Up until now longevity has increased thanks to better food and healthcare. More and more people are pushing toward the natural maximum life span for human beings, which is set by the length of telomeres and the accumulation of DNA replication errors. That approach has soon run its course. We would just get older, more fragile and dim-witted.

Going forward, however, stem cell research, nanotechnology and AI promise to cure cancer and enable organ replacements (maybe even brains, a fraction at a time) in a way that year by year postpones the final expiry date. Once parity is reached and surpassed, the expected time left to live will start to increase with time instead of just decreasing slower. By then it is possible to live long enough to live forever. Not long after, I expect technological progress (not least AI-guided nanotechnology and stem cells) to be able to reverse the symptoms of aging.

How about looking like 23 when you are 100 years old? How about bungy jumping on your 150th birthday? Why not live to 250...thousand. Or 25 million years. How about becoming 25 billion years old? But then you probably have to move, since the sun will explode in "only" around 7 billion years.

If this sounds tempting, and I admit I might be wrong by a couple of decades before reaching the ultimate threshold, you should take extra good care of yourself the coming 25 years. I'm not talking about sacrificing this life for the next, just making smart and informed choices and creating (fun) habits that reduce the risk of leaving the party just before it starts. Your plan for the coming 25 years might just as well be a plan for the coming 25 billion years. Live long enough by taking the following simple precautions:

Support your natural lifespan 

  • train your immune system and
  • avoid unnecessary pharmaceuticals.
  • Make sure you are as anti-inflammatory as possible;
    • eat enough Omega3 and
    • vitamin D.
  • Tan responsibly.
  • Condition both your body and brain. The brain developed to manage motion.
    • Exercise, even just a brisk walk, increases brain plasticity and postpones Alzheimer's, dementia and other age relatied brain issues.
    • Challenge both the brain and body with strong emotions and novelty

Keep a will

If you fail to stay healthy, or if the technological breakthroughs decelerate enough to make you die before the singularity, keep a will.

Write one right away. It's not so much for the ones being left behind (you'll be dead and won't ccare anyway) as it is for yourself during your final minutes. You don't want to lie there thinking about how the wrong person will get the wrong things and rub it in before the more deserving friends and relatives.

If you die within 25 years and you are reasonably succesful, materially, until then, which I expect you to be reading this, You would want to kill yourself (sic) if you don't have your will in order in the time preceeding your death. If you do, you can be relaxed and feel just in your final hour.

Summary: speak computer, embrace change, live long and prosper, keep a will and prepare to leave the planet before the sun blows up

  1. Learn automata
  2. Make yourself change resistant - embrace change
  3. Wait for a better time to invest for old age, but then you must do it
  4. Live long enough to live forever - exercise and experiment to cultivate both your body and brain
  5. Keep a will anyway
  6. Leave the planet

Update: Check out this video from Peak Prosperity about how the coming 20 years will be COMPLETELY UNLIKE the last 20 years, regarding Energy, the Environment and the Economy

23 kommentarer:

  1. "Weak and obsolete companies and irrational and irresponsible banks are allowed to continue, thus increasing the costs and risks of moral hazard. Meanwhile Netflix and YouTube turn us into mindless drones and distract us from what's going on. Instead of benefiting from technology, you are conditioned to only utilize it for entertainment and advertising"

    --Very well put. This is becoming a systemic problem. Imagine how future people, say 1000+ years from now, will LAUGH at our generation when they read in the history books (or whatever other form information will be transmitted through) of the future!

    They will scoff at our supposed ignorance, the same way we scoff at people of the past for doing XYZ when they could've done ABC.

    "In about 25 years it will probably be quite clear that humans can live forever"

    --I think this will be exclusive to the richest or most well-connected people at first.

    1. Yes, and living forever might not actually be achieved in a thousand years. However I think the first 'foreverman' will be born in the coming 25 years. I think that by 2040 we'll at least see the promises of postponing symptoms of aging more and more.

      Maybe only Mark Zuckerberg's children will have access first, but every new technology reaches the bottom layers faster and faster.

      How long did it take for the iPhone to reach the slums of Nigeria and Pakistan? 10 years? (NO, because the iPhone still isn't ten years old)

  2. "There is nothing more change resistant than computer enhanced human creativity."

    You couldn't have said it better.

    I believe that the human creativity won't be matched/surpassed (will it ever be?) anytime soon by machines, so people should definitely educate themselves on how to use technology in order to leverage their creativity.

    One of the best articles I've read recently, nice job sir.


    1. Thank you.

      Let's leave that question for the far future (whether computers will ever beat humans at creativity). And in any case human+computer will beat a computer for a very long time. And then two humans+computer will beat a lonely computer...

      In the very far future however I imagine large vats of neurons connected to artificial intelligences in faster substrates. Those things will be hard to beat. But then again, add a human to the equation and the new combo probably wins.

  3. I liked this post. It made me curious about the future, hungry for more knowledge, and...

    ...reminded me to take a walk.

  4. Just like mutation in DNA, creative intelligence from humans come from thoughts that initially would be called out as errors. Unlike computers, humans have a creative advantage to commit such errors, and therefore inevitable findings will come as a result.

    Interesting point on an amalgamation of interconnected neurons. Replicate such thought patterns to a computer, and you take away biological deficiencies such as the need for oxygen.

    One field I am interested in is simulation models and how they relate to chaos theory. CS can reveal anything in binary format, so simulate different binary codes to create different ideas, products, musical patterns, etc.

    Lastly, there is so much change going on in the programming world, that I have chosen to wait until the field becomes more developed and user friendly before delving my focus into it.

  5. Wonderful post.

    I bought 'How An Economy Grows And Why It Crashes' based on your recommendation and am half-way through.

    I just turned 25. Recently started underconsuming and am saving 20% of my income.Build an online business on the side too.

    All of my current savings are in cash. (USD and GBP... do you think owning these currencies is foolish?)

    What's your take on buying gold coins? I know Schiff's a big advocate of owning gold and would be curious to hear your take.

    Do you think someone in my position should look into owning gold, or be better off holding onto cash for the coming downturn?

    1. I hope you like it and tell others about it as well. The more people read it the better the world will be.

      I think USD and GBP are both better than SEK or EUR at least, and probably better than JPY too, as well as CHF (complicated of course and would take a post of several thousand words to go through all the arguments for various currencies).

      There might be some smaller currency with stable finances and that aren't relying on exports that would beat USD and GBP but I can't think of which one, so for the time being those two are the least rotten apples in the basket.

      Gold... I'm always reluctant advising anything regarding investments, just as you should be very critical to any advice you get.

      Gold is pretty but almost useless apart from some electronical details. It doesn't produce a return and historically the price vs currencies and real assets including commodities has fluctuated wildly. On the other hand it IS pretty and rare and almost undestructible. You'll always have that gold coin no matter what happens, but that is also exactly what you will have; a gold coin that you can't eat, can't use for shelter and can't wear. You can only hope somebody else with clothes, shelter and food is willing to trade that for a pretty coin.

      I think markets in general will function well enough at least one more cycle to make gold ETFs and gold coins appreciate a lot vs currencies and stocks. That is enough for me to hold paper gold at this point (mine ETF and physical gold ETF). I think that would serve equally well for a 25-year old like yourself.

      Please note though that the same could have been said 2-3 years ago and since then stocks have rallied and gold have tanked. I only think that makes the trade so much more attractive today, but somebody else might take it as evidence the trade doesn't work.

      In short, I don't think it is IMPORTANT to choose between gold and cash at this point, as long as you don't hold stocks. However, I think gold probably has the better prospects, both in an inflationary and deflationary environment.

    2. Thanks for the taking the time to reply in detail. For now, I'll allocate 10% to gold and keep the rest as cash.

      Are you familiar with Real Vision TV? Raoul Pal hosted a fascinating interview with Mark Hart, which I think you'll find of interest. You can watch it on the main site even without a subscription.

      And, yes, I'll be sure to pass on Schiff's book to some friends/family.

      Thanks again.

    3. Thanks for the tip. I watched the episode with Pal this morning. One of the best finance interviews ever.


    4. Glad you liked it. Up until that interview, I assumed bitcoin was a fad. But after hearing Mark Hart champions its potential, I'm now researching the opportunity in more detail. Pal has also championed bitcoin (Business Insider recently published an article about it) and he has mentioned several times that hedge fund managers are increasingly starting to respect it as an investment and looking to get involved.

      Would be interested to know if you have an informed opinion on bitcoin?

    5. I am surprised they focus so much on specifically Bitcoin rather than crypto currencies generally. Not that I know anything they don't, it's just that I am skeptical that exactly this one and only incarnation would become the sole medium of exchange of values in the future.

      In my vision of the coming 25-100 years, if we disregard the Singularity, there will be a myriad of ways for proof or exchange of value. Currencies, incl CCs could quickly become obsolete.

      However, in the coming 20 years, perhaps Bitcoin really is the best bet. It sure has a lot going for it: It seems to be working, it's the undisputed number one CC, it's more convenient than gold and it's decentralized and outside the "system". I just might buy a few myself, alongside gold, to protect my cash in the coming downturn.

      Would I trust B more than USD? Despite Janet Yellen, I wouldn't. With more info maybe I would so if you do find something tangible, do tell me about it.

  6. I really need to learn faster..

    I am wasting much of my time in school. Do you believe education and psychology are future-proof industries to work in?

    What human services are automation resistant? - aren't all dispensable in the long-run?

    Also: stumbled upon the concept of technological singularity, basically saying that there will be a point where technological advancement surpasses human potential (building robots that are smarter than humans) which is also pretty disturbing IMO.

    This post sounds a bit apocalypti to me. - I haven't done enough research on this stuff to form a good opinion on it .

    Although I don't believe in making big decision on speculations, I guess I could free up some time to invest in programming. I reckon the most popular ones are c, c#, JS , java and python. Which one would you recommend I research Mikael?

    1. Psychology is probably generally more resistant than education. However TOP teachers, with the help of tech should be resistant, IMO.

      Anyway, it's anybody's guess exactly which services will be replaced first. Burger flippers and bank tellers will go first, I think. But portolio managers and stock brokers are in danger too. Teachers and psychologists are very human. Ps will be needed to deal with all the stress the changes create. Ts are government funded in Sweden which puts them at risk. Higher education is moving online but a select few will make a lot of money there. Police are gov funded but seem pretty resistant to me. Guarding too. Restaurang personnel are at risk. Taxi driver, truck drivers, pilots, flight attendants are all at risk. Construction workers are at risk, I'd say. Architects should be fine.

      In the long run humans are unnecessary :), but let's start with The coming 25-50 years and see what happens regarding The Singularity.

      I think you should ask somebody else exactly which language to learn, partly depending of what you want to use it for. It's good to learn ANY program language to understand the rules. Once you can program learning a new language is much easier. But of course it's better to pick one you will actually use.

      I personally started with BASIC in 1982, then machine Code, Pascal, GPSS, database query languages.. This year I started with Python and JS but liked JS more even if people say Python is more versatile and useful. I also hear Ruby Rails is perhaps The best language... The question however is always... Best for WHAT?

      JavaScript is fun to play around with I think, but I am already retired and almost only doing it as brain gymnastics. I think I would start with whatever is used for iPhones and Android phones. Perhaps even better if there is an emerging programming language standard for robots but I don't think there is. Ask in The forums at Khan academy and codecademy what they think is useful.

      HEY, I'm a finance guy, not a programmet ;)

    2. That's great news - I'm big on psychology lately. Fascinating stuff!

      Jobs that will require complex thought are probably the most important to focus on. Do you think our income will be dependent on our knowledge and the speed by which we learn?

      I've also read C is like the basis for many other languages - maybe it's a god idea to start with the fundamentals?

      Thanks for the long answer Mikael - you write great stuff man!

    3. Re income: yes, partly, as always, but it's more complex than that. Topic for an entire book.

      C: no, start with the language you actually want to use. The principles are the same anyway: looping, variables, comparing, boolean logic etc. I suggest you ask someone how to make an app for Android or iPhone and then simply start. One foot (or finger) in front of the other...

    4. Have you seen this, Simon? It lists the value of various programming languages. Ruby on rails in the lead. Python, Java and JavaScript high on the list. Various versions of C interspersed throughout.


  7. Den här kommentaren har tagits bort av skribenten.

  8. This is a great article. I will read it in-depth later this week.

    Many of the ideas you present have been in my mind for the last couple of years.

    Have you heard about Peter Joseph? His interview on London Real is fantastic. Other interviews and lectures are very interesting too.

    I couldn't care less about any discussion regarding The Zeitgeist Movement. I think most of this guy's ideas are amazing and very interesting. I do not care about debates. So, I'm not campaigning or anything.

    Also, I personally disagree with some of the things he says. I think that not everyone deserves access to the same resources. Entrepreneurial people take/deserve more resources and that is perfect in my mind.

    Your blog and Ludvig's are true gems in the Internet.


    1. Yeah, I need to learn how to write more palatably, perhaps with more pictures, better intermediary headlines and snappier language, so you don't lose interest after the first paragraph :)

      I've seen the interview with PJ now. He has an interesting world view, quite contrary to my own in some respects and perfectly aligned in others. Thought-provoking... or rather provocative actually.

      I like his overall comment that everything is game theory (what if that person or institution does that and I do that...).

      I also like his ideas of the possibility of a post-scarcity society, but I wonder why he doesn't want to take into account inventions that are all but inevitable. I also find him naïve to think that you can just do away with competition as a driving force for innovation. On the other hand I agree that extrapolating the current crony capitalistic system will mean the death of money and possibly revolution.

      It's almost weird to hear the same person talking about people going off the grid to places like Ayn Rand's Galt's Gulch (Atlas Shrugged), and confiscation and redistribution of property simultaneously.

      I guess 2 hours simply isn't enough to get a coherent picture of him and his ideas, but he does seem conflicted. One example of that is his hatred of Kickstarter and reluctance to accept donations, but still plugs his online donation page a handful of times in under a minute.

      His holistic ideas (which make me think of Dirk Gently's holistic detective agency, by Douglas Adams) regarding chains of violence and the illusion of individuals (cf Alexander Bard) are also a bit too speculative and flowerypowery for me at this point.

      I think LondonReal videos unfortunately are too long and fluffy (can't be compared to e.g. RealVisionTV) so I have only watcheda handful. On the other hand they are free and frequent.

      In any case, it's good to sometimes listen to things you don't agree with or particularly like, so I definitely thank you for the suggestion.

  9. Hey, man.

    I'm amazed that you actually took the time to watch the interview. It's very uncommon, and remarkable.

    I didn't mean to say that the article needs pictures. I like to dedicate a 100% focus on articles I find interesting. That's why I'll read it later on.

    Your points on Peter Joseph's ideas. Like "flowerypowery" and speculative are spot on in my opinion.

    I think we are in fact in the middle of a huge worldwide transition. And your article reminded me a lot of him.

    Just in case you ever want to read more, he has a free book in pdf format:


    My vision is closer to yours in many regards.

    I have the mentality of guys like MJ deMarco. I want to be free by being a producer, a creator, not a consumer. Money buys freedom. Money buys time. Money opens doors for you. Doors that will be sealed to you if you don't have a dime.

    Anyway. I'll check your article later. Have a great day.